Morning Oil Note 30/6/20

The Brent crude futures for September fell 24 cents, or 0.6%, to $41.61 a barrel by 0610 GMT, paring Monday’s 92 cent gain. The August contract, which expires on Tuesday, fell 24 cents to $41.47. U.S. crude was down 33 cents, or 0.8% at $39.37 a barrel. A Reuters poll showed analysts expect U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell from record highs last week and gasoline inventories decreased for a third straight week. The API will release their data predicting the situation later tonight before the EIA confirms this at 3.30pm UK time tomorrow. Strong growth in the US pending home sales for May rose 44.3% month on month after two previous months of declines, bolstering hopes for global fuel demand. A Reuters analysis expects US crude oil stockpiles to fall from record highs last week. All eyes for signs of potential demand recovery are on data announcements due on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute, from the US government’s Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, and from the key 4 July holiday, where increased travel is expected. On the supply side Libya’s National Oil Company signalled progress on talks to resume exports, potentially boosting supply, bringing to the market a fraction of Libya’s 1% of global oil supply. OPEC+ unwavering compliance and stronger than expected Chinese factory data prevented oil to slide further.


MARKETS NEWS:
* Russian Crude Output Close to OPEC+ Target for Second Month
* Saudis to Raise Aug. Arab Light OSP to Asia by $1.25: Survey
* Saudi Prince, Nigerian President Discuss OPEC+ Deal: SPA
* A Second Virus Wave Is Threatening U.S. Oil Demand Again
* Tanker Market May Take Future Sanctions In Its Stride
* Alberta Premier Sees Oil Market Supply Shortage in 12-18 Months
* California Gasoline Dips on Houston Cargo Coming, Bars Closing
* Chicago Fuels HitMulti-Month Highs With Line 5 Crude Loss
* U.S. Gasoline Imports From Europe Rise After Recent Low: Data
* Weekly Gasoline Demand Falls For First Time Since Memorial Day

OTHER NEWS:
* Permian Driller Lilis Files for Bankruptcy, Citing Coronavirus
* Chesapeake Pushed Into Bankruptcy by Plunging Energy Prices
* Canada’s Oil Province Uses Covid Crisis to Speed Economic Revamp
* China Factory Outlook Brighter in June as Recovery Continues
* China Has $139 Billion Mountain to Climb to Meet U.S. Trade Deal
* Venezuela’s Maduro Expels EU Ambassador Over New Sanctions
* ConocoPhillips Curbs Return to Houston Office Amid Virus Spike

PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: China Oil Titans Plan Joint Crude Buying; Adnoc Cuts
* LATAM: China Teapots Process Less Lula; Oriente to P66
* US/CANADA: LLOG Production Gets Date, Exxon Raises Rates
* NSEA: BFOET Loadings to Fall; Johan Sverdrup Record
* MED: Surgut Sells Urals to Shell; Russian June Output
* WAF: Zafiro Loadings to Gain, Ceiba Steady; Angola Sales

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Enbridge Shutdown Lifts Chicago Fuels
* EUROPE: Total Antwerp Halts FCC; Primorsk Exports
* ASIA: Clean Fuel Hoard at Sea Near Singapore Drops

ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London)
* 5pm: EIA releases 914 production report
* 7pm: EIA releases Petroleum Supply Monthly
* 9:30pm: API weekly report on U.S. oil inventories

ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Oil and Gas Investments to Drop by 23% in 2020: Fitch Solutions
* OIL MKT RESEARCH: Virus Resurgence Threatens U.S. Recovery

OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Asia Stocks Rise, Extending Second-Quarter Rebound: Markets Wrap


Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Jul20      223.75   /             225.75

Aug20   223.00   /             225.00

Sep20    220.50   /             222.50

Oct20    218.50   /             220.50

Nov20   218.50   /             220.50

Dec20    219.50   /             221.50

Q3-20    222.50   /             224.50

Q4-20    218.75   /             220.75

Q1-21    223.25   /             225.25

Q2-21    226.25   /             229.25

CAL21    225.75   /             231.75

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Jul20      234.75   /             236.75

Aug20   236.75   /              238.75

Sep20    237.50   /             239.50

Oct20    238.00   /             240.00

Nov20   238.75   /             240.75

Dec20    240.25   /             242.25

Q3-20    236.50   /             238.50

Q4-20    239.00   /             241.00

Q1-21    243.25   /             245.25

Q2-21    245.25   /             248.25

CAL21    245.25   /             251.25

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Jul20      279.00   /              285.00

Aug20   284.25   /              290.25

Sep20    288.50   /              294.50

Oct20    292.25   /              298.25

Nov20   295.50   /              301.50

Dec20    298.50   /              304.50

Q3-20    283.75   /              289.75

Q4-20    295.25   /              301.25

Q1-21    304.75   /              310.75

Q2-21    311.75   /              319.75

CAL21    313.75   /              321.75

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Jul20      287.50   /              293.50

Aug20   295.50   /              301.50

Sep20    302.25   /              308.25

Oct20    308.00   /              314.00

Nov20   313.00   /              319.00

Dec20    317.00   /              323.00

Q3-20    295.00   /              301.00

Q4-20    312.50   /              318.50

Q1-21    323.50   /              329.50

Q2-21    330.00   /              338.00

CAL21    335.25   /              343.25

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Jul20      47.08     /              47.22

Aug20   46.62     /              46.82

Sep20    46.85     /              47.05

Oct20    47.27     /              47.47

Nov20   47.63     /              47.83

Dec20    47.98     /              48.18

Q3-20    46.80     /              47.10

Q4-20    47.58     /              47.88

Q1-21    48.73     /              49.03

Q2-21    49.92     /              50.22

CAL21    50.23     /              50.63

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                                

Jul20      350.01   /              352.01

Aug20   354.42   /              356.42

Sep20    358.92   /              360.92

Oct20    362.38   /              364.38

Nov20   364.65   /              366.65

Dec20    367.42   /              369.42

Q3-20    354.45   /              356.45

Q4-20    364.82   /              366.82

Q1-21    373.19   /              375.19

Q2-21    381.49   /              383.49

CAL21    385.38   /              387.38

                Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5

Jul20      57           55

Aug20   63           61

Sep20    70           67

Oct20    76           72

Nov20   79           76

Dec20    81           79

Q3-20    63           61

Q4-20    78           75

Q1-21    84           82

Q2-21    88           87

CAL21    89           91